Market Stress
Conflict Market Stress
ELEVATED
44/100Composite conflict market stress. Each instrument scored by z-score against its 30-day mean (VIX uses linear scale 12→0, 40→100). Weighted: VIX 30%, Brent 25%, Gold 20%, LMT 10%, USD/ILS 8%, 10Y 7%. Score 50 = average conditions. Above 60 = elevated. Above 80 = extreme.
VIX
18.8
24
VIX 18.8 → linear scale (12→0, 40→100) = 24.
wt 30% → 7.3 pts
Brent Crude
$88.10
85
Price 88.10 is 1.8σ above 30d mean (78.59 ± 5.41). Score = (1.8 × 20) + 50 = 85.
wt 25% → 21.3 pts
Gold
$4,018.80
15
Price 4,018.80 is 1.8σ below 30d mean (4,128.56 ± 62.02). Score = (-1.8 × 20) + 50 = 15.
wt 20% → 2.9 pts
Lockheed Martin
$508.77
32
Price 508.77 is 0.9σ below 30d mean (521.65 ± 14.17). Score = (-0.9 × 20) + 50 = 32.
wt 10% → 3.2 pts
USD/ILS (Shekel)
3.0400
77
Price 3.04 is 1.3σ above 30d mean (3.01 ± 0.02). Score = (1.3 × 20) + 50 = 77.
wt 8% → 6.2 pts
US 10Y Treasury
4.54%
40
Price 4.54 is 0.5σ above 30d mean (4.50 ± 0.07). Score = (-0.5 × 20) + 50 = 40.
wt 7% → 2.8 pts
Elevated market tension relative to 30-day baselines. Conflict dynamics reflected in commodity and volatility pricing.
Instruments
Gold
$4,018.80
▲0.8%
-1.8σ below mean
Brent Crude
$88.10
▲4.6%
+1.8σ above mean
USD/ILS (Shekel)
3.0400
▲1.4%
+1.3σ above mean
Silver
$56.33
▲0.8%
-1.8σ below mean
VIX
18.8
▲12.2%
Markets calm
US 10Y Treasury
4.54%
▼0.6%
+0.5σ above mean
Lockheed Martin
$508.77
▼1.1%
-0.9σ below mean
Price History
Brent Crude Oil
+1.8σ above mean
BZ=F
Primary conflict commodity. Above $100 signals active war premium.
Gold
-1.8σ below mean
GC=F
Flight-to-safety indicator. Rising gold = investors hedging conflict risk.
VIX Volatility Index
Markets calm
^VIX
Market fear gauge. Above 25 = elevated anxiety. Above 35 = extreme fear.
USD/ILS (Israeli Shekel)
+1.3σ above mean
USDILS=X
Rising = weaker shekel = economic stress on Israel.
US 10Y Treasury Yield
+0.5σ above mean
^TNX
Dropping yields = flight to bonds. Rising = risk-on or inflation concerns.
Lockheed Martin (Defense)
-0.9σ below mean
LMT
Defense sector proxy. Surging = market pricing escalation.
Silver
-1.8σ below mean
SI=F
Secondary precious metal safe-haven. Tracks gold sentiment with higher volatility.