Market Stress
Conflict Market Stress
LOW
24/100Composite conflict market stress. Each instrument scored by z-score against its 30-day mean (VIX uses linear scale 12→0, 40→100). Weighted: VIX 30%, Brent 25%, Gold 20%, LMT 10%, USD/ILS 8%, 10Y 7%. Score 50 = average conditions. Above 60 = elevated. Above 80 = extreme.
VIX
16.1
14
VIX 16.1 → linear scale (12→0, 40→100) = 14.
wt 30% → 4.3 pts
Brent Crude
$97.86
32
Price 97.86 is 0.9σ below 30d mean (103.90 ± 6.59). Score = (-0.9 × 20) + 50 = 32.
wt 25% → 7.9 pts
Gold
$4,462.70
15
Price 4,462.70 is 1.8σ below 30d mean (4,617.49 ± 87.74). Score = (-1.8 × 20) + 50 = 15.
wt 20% → 2.9 pts
Lockheed Martin
$512.03
24
Price 512.03 is 1.3σ below 30d mean (523.97 ± 9.06). Score = (-1.3 × 20) + 50 = 24.
wt 10% → 2.4 pts
USD/ILS (Shekel)
2.8700
38
Price 2.87 is 0.6σ below 30d mean (2.89 ± 0.04). Score = (-0.6 × 20) + 50 = 38.
wt 8% → 3.0 pts
US 10Y Treasury
4.49%
54
Price 4.49 is 0.2σ below 30d mean (4.51 ± 0.09). Score = (0.2 × 20) + 50 = 54.
wt 7% → 3.8 pts
Markets calm. All tracked instruments near or below their 30-day averages.
Instruments
Gold
$4,462.70
▼0.6%
-1.8σ below mean
Brent Crude
$97.86
▲1.9%
-0.9σ below mean
USD/ILS (Shekel)
2.8700
▲1.8%
-0.6σ below mean
Silver
$72.98
▼3.1%
-1.4σ below mean
VIX
16.1
▲1.8%
Markets calm
US 10Y Treasury
4.49%
▲0.8%
Near 30d average
Lockheed Martin
$512.03
▼0.9%
-1.3σ below mean
Price History
Brent Crude Oil
-0.9σ below mean
BZ=F
Primary conflict commodity. Above $100 signals active war premium.
Gold
-1.8σ below mean
GC=F
Flight-to-safety indicator. Rising gold = investors hedging conflict risk.
VIX Volatility Index
Markets calm
^VIX
Market fear gauge. Above 25 = elevated anxiety. Above 35 = extreme fear.
USD/ILS (Israeli Shekel)
-0.6σ below mean
USDILS=X
Rising = weaker shekel = economic stress on Israel.
US 10Y Treasury Yield
Near 30d average
^TNX
Dropping yields = flight to bonds. Rising = risk-on or inflation concerns.
Lockheed Martin (Defense)
-1.3σ below mean
LMT
Defense sector proxy. Surging = market pricing escalation.
Silver
-1.4σ below mean
SI=F
Secondary precious metal safe-haven. Tracks gold sentiment with higher volatility.