Market Stress
Conflict Market Stress
ELEVATED
50/100Composite conflict market stress. Each instrument scored by z-score against its 30-day mean (VIX uses linear scale 12→0, 40→100). Weighted: VIX 30%, Brent 25%, Gold 20%, LMT 10%, USD/ILS 8%, 10Y 7%. Score 50 = average conditions. Above 60 = elevated. Above 80 = extreme.
VIX
20.0
29
VIX 20.0 → linear scale (12→0, 40→100) = 29.
wt 30% → 8.6 pts
Brent Crude
$113.47
77
Price 113.47 is 1.3σ above 30d mean (107.71 ± 4.34). Score = (1.3 × 20) + 50 = 77.
wt 25% → 19.1 pts
Gold
$3,906.10
0
Price 3,906.10 is 3.5σ below 30d mean (4,158.58 ± 72.99). Score = (-3.5 × 20) + 50 = 0.
wt 20% → 0.0 pts
Lockheed Martin
$641.88
85
Price 641.88 is 1.8σ above 30d mean (552.27 ± 50.66). Score = (1.8 × 20) + 50 = 85.
wt 10% → 8.5 pts
USD/ILS (Shekel)
3.1400
90
Price 3.14 is 2.0σ above 30d mean (3.09 ± 0.02). Score = (2.0 × 20) + 50 = 90.
wt 8% → 7.2 pts
US 10Y Treasury
4.94%
88
Price 4.94 is 1.9σ below 30d mean (5.18 ± 0.13). Score = (1.9 × 20) + 50 = 88.
wt 7% → 6.1 pts
Elevated market tension relative to 30-day baselines. Conflict dynamics reflected in commodity and volatility pricing.
Instruments
Gold
$3,906.10
▼3.1%
-3.5σ below mean
Brent Crude
$113.47
▼1.2%
+1.3σ above mean
USD/ILS (Shekel)
3.1400
▲0.6%
+2.0σ above mean
Silver
$49.26
▼5.6%
-3.0σ below mean
VIX
20.0
▲16.5%
Markets calm
US 10Y Treasury
4.94%
▼1.0%
-1.9σ below mean
Lockheed Martin
$641.88
▲1.9%
+1.8σ above mean
Price History
Brent Crude Oil
+1.3σ above mean
BZ=F
Primary conflict commodity. Above $100 signals active war premium.
Gold
-3.5σ below mean
GC=F
Flight-to-safety indicator. Rising gold = investors hedging conflict risk.
VIX Volatility Index
Markets calm
^VIX
Market fear gauge. Above 25 = elevated anxiety. Above 35 = extreme fear.
USD/ILS (Israeli Shekel)
+2.0σ above mean
USDILS=X
Rising = weaker shekel = economic stress on Israel.
US 10Y Treasury Yield
-1.9σ below mean
^TNX
Dropping yields = flight to bonds. Rising = risk-on or inflation concerns.
Lockheed Martin (Defense)
+1.8σ above mean
LMT
Defense sector proxy. Surging = market pricing escalation.
Silver
-3.0σ below mean
SI=F
Secondary precious metal safe-haven. Tracks gold sentiment with higher volatility.