Market Stress
Conflict Market Stress
ELEVATED
41/100Composite conflict market stress. Each instrument scored by z-score against its 30-day mean (VIX uses linear scale 12→0, 40→100). Weighted: VIX 30%, Brent 25%, Gold 20%, LMT 10%, USD/ILS 8%, 10Y 7%. Score 50 = average conditions. Above 60 = elevated. Above 80 = extreme.
VIX
17.5
20
VIX 17.5 → linear scale (12→0, 40→100) = 20.
wt 30% → 5.9 pts
Brent Crude
$108.33
89
Price 108.33 is 2.0σ above 30d mean (95.74 ± 6.40). Score = (2.0 × 20) + 50 = 89.
wt 25% → 22.4 pts
Gold
$4,336.70
12
Price 4,336.70 is 1.9σ below 30d mean (4,539.97 ± 108.27). Score = (-1.9 × 20) + 50 = 12.
wt 20% → 2.5 pts
Lockheed Martin
$524.19
26
Price 524.19 is 1.2σ below 30d mean (558.51 ± 28.95). Score = (-1.2 × 20) + 50 = 26.
wt 10% → 2.6 pts
USD/ILS (Shekel)
3.0500
82
Price 3.05 is 1.6σ above 30d mean (3.01 ± 0.03). Score = (1.6 × 20) + 50 = 82.
wt 8% → 6.6 pts
US 10Y Treasury
4.97%
9
Price 4.97 is 2.1σ above 30d mean (4.78 ± 0.09). Score = (-2.1 × 20) + 50 = 9.
wt 7% → 0.6 pts
Elevated market tension relative to 30-day baselines. Conflict dynamics reflected in commodity and volatility pricing.
Instruments
Gold
$4,336.70
▼1.6%
-1.9σ below mean
Brent Crude
$108.33
▲3.6%
+2.0σ above mean
USD/ILS (Shekel)
3.0500
▲0.2%
+1.6σ above mean
Silver
$63.54
▼2.5%
-2.3σ below mean
VIX
17.5
▲10.5%
Markets calm
US 10Y Treasury
4.97%
▲0.6%
+2.0σ above mean
Lockheed Martin
$524.19
▼0.1%
-1.2σ below mean
Price History
Brent Crude Oil
+2.0σ above mean
BZ=F
Primary conflict commodity. Above $100 signals active war premium.
Gold
-1.9σ below mean
GC=F
Flight-to-safety indicator. Rising gold = investors hedging conflict risk.
VIX Volatility Index
Markets calm
^VIX
Market fear gauge. Above 25 = elevated anxiety. Above 35 = extreme fear.
USD/ILS (Israeli Shekel)
+1.6σ above mean
USDILS=X
Rising = weaker shekel = economic stress on Israel.
US 10Y Treasury Yield
+2.0σ above mean
^TNX
Dropping yields = flight to bonds. Rising = risk-on or inflation concerns.
Lockheed Martin (Defense)
-1.2σ below mean
LMT
Defense sector proxy. Surging = market pricing escalation.
Silver
-2.3σ below mean
SI=F
Secondary precious metal safe-haven. Tracks gold sentiment with higher volatility.